When Water Runs Out: Why Security Isn’t Guaranteed

A rice farmer in Indonesia with no water, just dry fields and dead fish. In this episode, we explore how water security is slipping: quietly, globally, and closer to home than we think.

Transcript

Good morning, afternoon or evening, whatever it is wherever you happen to find yourself today. I’m Dave and thank you so much for joining me today on Running my mouth off.

Last year, I met a rice farmer in a city called Bandung which is in Indonesia. His family had been farming this land for a little over 60 years, and it was maybe 15, 20 acres, something like that. But when I visited, he was only able to farm just a small portion of it, maybe a half an acre or so.

While we walked out together to what used to be his water source, what I saw was cracked earth, and literally dried out fish on the ground, absolutely no water left left.  And then said, “I used to harvest a lot more rice from this land,” he told me. “Now? Barely anything.” He didn’t give me a number, but just looking at the land, you could tell. Most of it wasn’t even being used anymore

And what hit me, as we walked around and talked, is that, this is something that’s going to happen in the future, this is something that’s happening now. And it’s happening in a world that seems so far removed from life here in the the U.S. that most of us never even hear about it.

Here in the US, we love to argue about Trump, Biden, or whatever happens to be trending at the moment. But things like this, they just don’t make the headlines. After all, there’s no cultural stickiness to a dried-up rice field somewhere in Indonesia, we just don’t really care about it.

And yet, stories like these, these are those subtle, quiet warnings that we keep ignoring. Until, they come for us.

Section 2: What Is Water Security, Really?

Last week we talked about and island nation called Kiribati. It’s a place where life is being, we’ll say “significantly impacted” because of rising seas. And it’s not just Kiribati. I read a story about a boy in the Maldives on Unicef’s website, the article by the way, is called “We’re being swallowed by the ocean and running out of fresh water.” And the title pretty much says it all. Really good read, but they’re facing the same thing in the Maldives. Saltwater is creeping in, and fresh water is disappearing.

Meanwhile, we, here in the developed world, we turn on the faucet and really don’t give it a second thought.

But that’s exactly what water security looks like—when you have water, every single day, and we don’t even wonder if it’ll show up because it always has.

But that security that we kind of take for granted here? It’s not really guaranteed.

Water security looks like this:

• Do we have enough water when we need it?
• Is it clean?
• And, will it still be there tomorrow?

It’s not just about droughts. It’s about infrastructure. It’s about politics. Climate, privilege.

We assume that this system will keep working because it always has worked, it's always been there for us. But things like pipes don’t last forever. I mean, think of how old some of these systems are, I mean, there are people who are collecting Social Security who are younger than these things.

It’s not just a global issue though. It’s more and more becoming a local one. And it’s happening now, It’s happening right in our backyards.

Section 3: Who Has Water—and Who Doesn’t

Stepping back, looking globally, currently, over 2 billion people globally lack safe drinking water. That’s a big number, and it’s easy to dismiss because it’s not one of those sticky issues that we see on our news feeds every day.  

But let’s zoom in a bit.

That farmer in Indonesia? His water reserves were gone, which is a pretty important thing if you're trying to grow rice. Rice needs that steady flow of fresh water to provide consistant flow of oxygen, and to keep its temperatures nice and steady. And our farmer in Bandung though? He used to grow a lot more, but now, because of that lack of water? He’s producing very little. Again, to my eyes? Looked to be about a half acre, only.  

Let’s back up for a moment though and provide some context and a really brief picture of what’s been happening in Indonesia.

Indonesia was hit hard by El Niños starting in 2023. Here in California it brings a lot of rain, El Niños down in the southern hemisphere create drought. Two back-to-back years of hot and dry weather absolutely decimated rice production. By the end of 2023, rice output had dropped by about 18 percent, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but it actually is pretty significant. And, as a result of this, prices spiked. Production got so low that the country actually started importing rice, which is, I don’t know if it’s a first, but it’s certainly not normal for them. For a country where rice is part of daily life and, kind of an identity, that was a big deal.

Things have improved lately though—Indonesia is now saying that it won’t need to import rice in 2025—but it’s kind of a fragile recovery. If the recent El Niños have taught us anything, it’s that unpredictable weather is starting to become our new normal. 

Living in California, we now seem to be on a “feast or famine” type schedule when it comes to rain. And there’s only so much rain to go around so, when one region gets a lot of rain, another doesn’t get enough. That’s the tradeoff, and that appears to be our new normal.

Staying on the topic of things globally though, in the Maldives? Saltwater, again, is seeping into their wells, as is the case in Kiribati, as we discussed last week. And families are now waiting for water deliveries, they’re now having their water brought in, in plastic bottles, which is a whole different conversation.

But let’s look how things are shaping up here in the US now.

Lake Mead, which is the largest reservoir in the US, is three feet lower right now, and it’s currently the end of May in 2025, than it was just at the start of this month, of this May. And it’s ten feet lower than this time last year. It’s also sitting at about 32% of capacity.

And then there’s this, not sure if you remember the headlines  a few years ago but, between May and October in 2022, Lake Mead, as the water dropped to historic lows, five different sets of human remains were found around the lake, this made again pretty big headlines in the US. One was actually found inside of a barrel, and one can only imagine how that happened. A couple on a boat actually found one. Two sisters happened to be out paddleboarding and they found a jawbone. A family out for a picnic actually found a skeleton along the shoreline, and I’m just kinda wondering how that family dynamic was at that point. So many jokes but I’m just going to move on. There was even a world war 2 boat that was discovered.

The “bathtub ring” around the reservoir was already, we’ll just say, jarring. But this? This was a drought quite literally pulling the past right to the surface.

And the Colorado river? Streamflow is down 20% since 2000. And keep in mind that river supports roughly 40 million people.

Snowpack this year? Just 58% of the median—58% of normal. And only 55% of the expected runoff is actually finding its way into reservoirs.

A few years ago in 2023, California, Arizona, and Nevada struck a deal to conserve 3 million acre-feet of water by 2026. And that’s buying us time. But long-term? Experts in the field are now telling us that we need to conserve that amount every single year to keep the river system alive.

And it’s not just the Southwest. Recall that Mexico City almost hit a “Day Zero” in 2024—that would be the day when water stoped flowing out of the faucets. Entire neighborhoods in Mexico City, in fact most of the city, were being put on rotating shutoffs, when they only had access to water for about an hour a day.

And that kind of crisis, it’s not something that shows up overnight. It’s more of a slow-motion breakdown. And these things are brought on by years of drought, overuse, crumbling infrastructure, again, years in the making.

So yeah, water is now officially starting to become more a negotiation. And a lot less of a guarantee.

Section 4: What Happens When Water Runs Out

Again though, typically, this kind of stuff doesn’t start with a loud bang—there’s no sudden proclamation. It starts with stuff that feels really minor, it’s those small warning signs, like that rice farmer in Indonesia and like what we’ve seen on Lake Mead.

Food prices then, they begin to tick up because some crops are just struggling. Energy bills go up because there’s less hydropower, and again we saw this with Lake Mead. And then, at some point, public trust begins to erode because people start doubting what comes out of their faucets

And, if you’ve ever read a prospectus for a stock or mutual fund, you know that phrase: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

And that is exactly the case with our water.

Even in the U.S., when the Colorado River shrinks, as it appears to be doing. Farms are forced to scale back, to use less water. That means less produce. Higher prices. And working families, you and I,  begin to feel the pinch.

And globally? Girls are forced to miss school because they’re busy hauling water instead. And this is especially the case in many countries in Africa. Not because of war or because of a disaster, it’s just because their wells have all dried up.

It’s not a sudden event, like that drunk relative who shows up at your door, like what happened to me last night. It’s more like a slow gas leak that’s silent and steady, and has the ability to mess with our lives in some pretty dramatic ways.

And we see the signs like they did in Mexico City, like we’re seeing in Kiribati; like we’re seeing now in the Maldives. Like Lake Mead, Lake Powell, etc.. And, at some point, it begins to hit us, right where we live. Things like grocery bills, showers and, God forbid, that morning cup of coffee, or multiple cups in my case.

Section 5: So What Do We Do With That?

And I know it probably sounds like I’m preaching a lot of panic, like I’m spreading a lot of doom and gloom here, that’s really not my intention. This is about just being aware of what’s happening in the world around us and, by the way, it’s starting to happen here. 

Because this isn’t one of those problems we can just quickly fix. It seems to be one of those tipping points that, once we've hit, well, this is pretty much what we’re stuck with.

At this point though, we need to be investing in infrastructure—especially in places where things like broken pipes are common, and we saw that in, I think it was Jackson, Mississippi not too long ago. When pipes were failing and they had to change treatment plants . And it resulted in we see notifications being sent out, that, well, we now need to be boiling our water, because that’s how are lives are right now.

And yeah, moving forward, maybe fix that faucet that only leaks when you bump it, you know, the one that you've been meaning to fix for a few years now? And I’m suddenly reminded of some projects that I need to do around my home, not water related but… You know in construction how they say that Jesus was the carpenter, but Satan was the plumber? Man, working on plumbing, that is so true! But, anyways, digression .

All of that little stuff, all of those little fixes, that we do on mass scale and individual scales; all of those things matter.

Section 6: Final Thought

But, wrapping up here, when I stood though, on that dry field in Indonesia, and I looked at that cracked ground where water reserves used to be, and I saw all of those dead fish with flies around, and about a half acre of struggling rice, that used to be about 15 to 20 acres that he’d farm on, man, it felt so far removed from what life is like here in the States.

But thinking about it, water security, it’s not distant. It’s not about “them.” It’s about “us.” And we’re seeing things starting to happen here.

And the one thing about water is—we don’t notice it when it’s there. We only notice it when it’s gone. And by then, it’s pretty much too late.

So no, this episode it’s not meant to spread doom and gloom or scare tactics or anything like that. It’s just meant to say here, here’s what I saw over seas and here’s what I’m seeing right here at home. And honestly, just noticing, just paying attention to this stuff? Just might be the most important step that we can take, and that feels kinda cheesy to say so I’m going to stop right here.

So, what is up next?

I was talking to a friend of mine the other day, he lives in Dubai and he was in town for a couple days, so we got together. He was asking about this podcast and and he was asking about my point of view on climate change and some of the issue that surround it. As we talked, he said this: “People aren’t really being impacted by climate change yet though…” Ok? 

Actually I get it though. If you’re not seeing it up close, if you’re not immersed in it, you don’t live in it, all of this climate change impact stuff can feel kinda like, vapor.

So next week, we’re talking about another one of those impacts that we don’t see on the news, like those African girls that I mentioned earlier, spending hours a day, every day, walking for water.. And the result of that is that they miss school, which has its own set of consequences.

It doesn’t look dramatic on the outside. But a girl’s ability to go to school changes everything culturally, community wide; education, health, opportunity, everything changes.

So that’s where we’re going next. 

Again, I’m Dave and thank you so much for joining me today on Running My Mouth Off, I hope you have an amazing week.